Indeed, there are a lot of debates in Singapore Forex forums on whether the Forex market is random, and to which extent one can predict it. I am not pretend to give a comprehensive answer on this question, the market is a too complicated phenomenon, but I will be able to give two examples from my own practice.
The first example is not directly related to the topic, but he helped me by giving me confidence and patience achieves Forex market forecasting.
Is it possible to predict the Forex market? How to create your own trading strategy?
It was 30 years ago. If anyone remembers, Lottery game was very popular those days. 36 numbered balls were mixed up together with the numbers from 1 to 36 and one thrown into the tray of 5 balls. I decided to make a program that allows you to predict which numbers will be drawn in the next drawing. Although theoretically I knew that it is impossible to predict a random process, but I was not just confident, I just know that I will find a solution. I will not describe all details of this work, but in the end I was able to consistently predict the 3 digits out of 5.
That was enough to get an average of 1,000% return on every lottery ticket. It was very disappointing that after ten years of hard work to achieve a positive result, I was not able to benefit from it. The problem was that the program, which I created on a computer at the time, was considered the results more than a day. I had the opportunity to come on Saturday morning, turn on the machine, run the program and wait until Sunday evening for the results, but the tickets for the next draw had to be sent out by Friday, and the drawing was held on Sunday. But this is not the point, the most important thing here is the main conclusions of this work.
In practice, there are no absolutely random processes, each process bears a weak, but a deterministic component, as it is impossible to single out the process and to isolate it from interacting with the outside world. Any interaction creates correlations, and this, in turn, makes it possible, if not directly, then indirectly, to identify those links and carry them through the process of the forecast.
In the example I gave you above was a funny moment. Initially the box where the balls were mixed, was octagonal cylinder, which was spun around its axis. But at one point, the drum was replaced, making it spherical with a vibrator on its base, which tossed the balls into the center of the box. And when they changed that box, my program fell apart, it stopped to predict, I had to wait six months until I accumulated new statistics, and completely change the program algorithm, but then I was able to regain a stable forecasting. The essence of the algorithm is reduced to the description of the space, which is a box.
To enhance the information content of input features it is necessary to create their covariance with each other, using different laws of combining these signs, and identify the optimal group form the most accurate model. For forecasting I used a method close to today’s genetic algorithms.
When I first saw Forex charts they seemed to me painfully familiar. That Lottery statistics which I used looked almost identical. Lotto and Forex market with the same complexity of their prediction are completely different. According to their volume, they can be compared as a drop of water to the ocean. If in the lottery the deterministic component is very weak, in the Forex market on the contrary, random processes constitute a small part here.
All the numerous events, both on the market and in the global economy and policies that have a direct impact on the market, have a deep causal connections that with a lack of information about them and the complexity of their interaction with each other might be represented as random events.
Since 2000, I began to study the Forex market. My conclusion is that it is absolutely possible to forcast it, but like any complex phenomenon, it can not be solved with primitive types of technical indicators and oscillators. As a result of many years of my work on the Forex market research, I came to the conclusions that will be of interest of many Singapore traders, and those conclusions relate not only to the technical aspects of the problem, but affect the deep nature of the Forex market.
The world in which we live is so complex and multidimensional that it is impossible to reduce it to a simple formula. The processes taking place in our everyday life may seem obvious at first glance, but when we look at it turns out that behind this simplicity is hidden a quite different structure than we imagined, and in order to properly understand it, it is necessary to change the stereotype of our thinking.
For example, coal seems to us a solid form of matter, but if we change our superficial perception and try to realize his inner nature, it turns out that behind the seemingly constant dense matter a dynamic energy structure is hidden, consisting of a multi-dimensional force fields connecting myriads of elementary particles that forces them to move in their orbits at tremendous speeds.
Everything in this world is energy, some of its forms are expressed clearly, others are hidden behind the illusion of matter, others in our dimension manifest themselves only as symbols, through which it is possible to get access to the very process of stemming the higher level, and often we don’t suspect of the existence of these processes.
Money is energy, and as any energy, it does not appear out of nowhere, and disappear into nowhere, it is a subject to the law of conservation of energy, passing from one form to another. Dollars, Pounds, Yen – they are only the characters, behind which you can find different types of energy, and the Forex market is a huge transmitter that converts one type of energy into another. Behind obvious outer side of these phenomena lies another, not available to our limited perception, that is not able to penetrate into other dimensions.
When money is moving and converting from one from to another, there is a movement of energy flows corresponding to the potential of this money in the subtle causal level, that is not accessible to our senses without special training. And the FX market is the energy information system, which includes not only the technical system tools, but the emotions and psychology of all its participants, as well as a variety of different energy flows corresponding movement of money around the world. This energy creates a powerful force, which like a magnet that on one hand attracts additional energy of those who touch it and on the other hand has an impact on the psychology of everyone who is in his actions.
Knowing what a huge amount of money rotate in the Forex market every day, which emotional intensity each participant experiences when trading on the Forex market, you can imagine the huge energy potential and power of the energy flows that accompany this work. There is nothing accidental in the movement of these energies as they are subject to very specific rules.
For all its global nature, the Forex market is very sensitive and vulnerable. Events taking place throughout the world, have a direct or indirect effect on it. Some speeches of the senior politicians and financiers, the military and political conflict, the state of the economies of different countries, price fluctuations in other financial markets, all this leads to changes on the Forex market. In addition, there are attempts to directly manipulate the Forex market.
Some big participants are trying to do that by making risky trades, trying to bring the market out of balance. Also, some structures and persons who have mastered the techniques of control and energy management, and try to carry out some dirrect impact on the energy flow in the subtle level, thus triggering the movement of prices to their desirable direction in our physical dimension.
While working in the Forex market, I notice these attempts and face a the energy, and someone else will, carrying out pressure on the price movement, consciously perceived it, having enough experience in working with energy techniques.
Main noise and distortion, or what can be considered a random component of the Forex market and noise, is usually coming from dealing centers, as well as communication channels. About how this happens, I think each of you has your own thought, as you might came across those phenomenon not once when trading in the Forex market. What should you do in the confusion of various opposing interests, forces and energies, where should you go to find your place under the sun?
You can learn to feel the market, and predict it without any technical help. Every Singapore Forex trader can master this skill with a proper training. In order to do this, the first stage is to simply observe the prices movements on the minute chart of any selected tool (but only on one currency pair, as each pair has its own specifics, and until you learn to feel it keep working with one). How long time will it take? It is hard to say, because it is very individual, someone may learn it in a half a year, for someone it may take a year.
It took me two months, but most should not rely on this figure. Many years of practice and learning of various energy techniques and meditation helped me to master this skill. Although these practices are not required to master this method of market forecasting, but their use can significantly accelerate the entire process. An important detail, you should not try to guess the price movement at this time, as trying to guess, you distract your subconscious mind to work, and it all happens on a subconscious level.
I feel like I have lots to share on this subject and will continue it in my next articles. Stay turned.
If you liked this article, feel free to share it with your friends. Sharing is caring.